Global Warming, sea-level rise & the Vostok ice core record.

Global Warming, sea-level rise & the Vostok ice core record.

Postby Vostok » Wed Jul 28, 2010 6:36 pm

The following link provides a complete list of topics on this forum:

http://www.preearth.net/phpBB3/search.php?search_id=newposts


The Vostok ice core provides us with much information.

For example, here is the correlation between carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and temperature (at Vostok) over the last 420,000 years;

Image

Here we have two graphs, one plotting carbon dioxide concentration versus age, and the other plotting temperature versus age. The temperature is that measured at Vostok (in Antarctica) and is in degrees centigrade. The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is in parts per million (ppm). The temperature scale is actually measured relative to -56 degrees (-56 degrees being the average temperature at Vostok over the years 1961 to 1990). As has been pointed out to me, it would have been easier just to label the temperature scale -64 -62 -60 -58 -56 -54 -52.

The age of the ice is obtained by counting the annual layers of ice and when the layers are no longer clearly visible, the age is obtained by modeling the flow of the merged ice layers.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is measured directly from bubbles of air trapped in the layers of snow.

The temperature can be obtained by using hydrogen isotopes as a proxy. Hydrogen comes in two isotopes 1H and 2H. We will denote the usual hydrogen, 1H, simply by H. Its nucleus consists of one proton. Heavy hydrogen, 2H, will be called Deuterium and denoted D. Its nucleus consists of one proton and one neutron. When ocean water evaporates, heavy water (which is mostly HDO with a very small amount of D2O) evaporates less readily (than normal water H2O) because it is heavier. Therefore, the water vapor in the atmosphere ends up with a smaller percentage of heavy water in it than ocean water. When this water vapor in the atmosphere precipitates as rain and snow, the heavy water in it precipitates out preferentially, but the rain or snow still has measurably less heavy water than ocean water. This difference can be used to estimate the temperature around the time the evaporation/precipitation occurred. [A similar statement can be made concerning the oxygen isotopes, 16O and 18O.]

To emphasize the incredible correlation between the temperature and carbon dioxide concentration, it has been suggested that the two graphs of the image should be over-lapped as follows:

Image

Notice the huge "hockey stick" rise at year 0 (i.e., the present time) on the right of the graphs. Some folk have complained that the "hockey stick" rise has been hidden (probably by a change in the page's width). If you cannot see the "hockey stick" rise then right click on the image and choose "view image" from the menu and the image will appear separately from the page.

The graphs show that if the 420,000 year trend continues, we are in for a massive temperature rise.

Indeed, this rise in temperature is already under way, as is verified by the following data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Image

The anomalies measure the difference from the 20th century average (1901-2000).

The 20th century average land+ocean surface temperature is 13.9 °C.
The 20th century average land surface temperature is 8.5 °C.
The 20th century average ocean surface temperature is 16.1 °C.

The data is from: ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php

For a full listing of the 137 years of temperature records, see:

http://preearth.net/images/temp-anomalies-1880-2017.txt

The rise in average yearly land temperatures is particularly worrying (from 7.8725 °C in 1884, to 9.9357 °C in 2017).

So, why is the rise in temperatures so worrisome?

For one thing, as temperatures rise good farmland will become desert (e.g., dust-bowl conditions will probably return to the American Midwest).

Another major problem is sea-level rise.

Have a look at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/

The U.S. Geological Survey people claim that;

The Greenland ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 6.55 meters (21.5 feet),
the West Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 8.06 meters (26.4 feet),
the East Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 64.8 meters (212.6 feet),
and all other ice melting will raise sea-level 0.91 meters (3 feet).

For a grand total of 80.32 meters (263.5 feet).

So, what does an 80 meter (263 feet) rise in sea-level mean. Have a look at the following map of the world after an 80 meter rise.

Image

For a larger map see: http://www.preearth.net/images/after-melt-world.png

It means that over one billion people will have to be resettled to higher ground and that much of the most productive agricultural land will be under water. Fortunately, at current rates the Greenland ice sheet will take over a thousand years to melt and the Antarctica ice sheet, much longer. However, the greater the temperature rise the faster the ice sheets will melt, bringing the problem much closer. Remember, the huge ice sheet that recently covered much of North America, almost completely melted in only 15,000 years (today, only the Greenland ice sheet and some other small patches of it, remain). Since then (15,000 years ago), sea-levels have risen about 125 meters (410 feet), only 80 meters to go.

This is what Britain and Ireland will look like:

Image
Vostok
 

Re: The Vostok ice core records & global warming.

Postby preearth » Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:47 am

Huge detailed maps of the "World after the Melt".

The following links point to detailed images of the world after the ice-caps have melted.

After the melt. 500m contours. China.
After the melt. 500m contours. Europe.
After the melt. 500m contours. North America.
After the melt. 500m contours. South America.
After the melt. 500m contours. Australia and New Zealand.
After the melt. 500m contours. Africa.

Here is one of them (100 times smaller):

Image

Here are some after-melt images which compare the new sea-shore to the old:

Image
Image

They are from newpapyrusmagazine.blogspot.com/2008/03/worse-case-scenario.html

For larger maps: here and here.

If you happen to be from New Zealand then visit: http://www.musther.net/nzslr/
preearth
 
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