The Conspiracy to hide Global Warming.

The Conspiracy to hide Global Warming.

Postby Vostok » Wed Jul 28, 2010 6:36 pm

Evil in the Land of Academia.
2017, 2019 and 2020 were "hottest year on record" events
that were covered up by various people in Academia.


When, at the beginning of a year, one adds the latest average global (land-ocean) surface temperature to the list of average global temperatures for previous years, one discovers something very interesting. It turns out that if the added year is a "hottest year on record" event, then (in three cases) adjustments have been made to reduce that years status.

For example, when the average global temperature made 2019 a "hottest year on record", the 2016 average was (fraudulently) increased till it was greater than the 2019 average, making 2019 only the "second hottest year on record". And when the average global temperature also made 2020 a "hottest year on record", the 2016 average was again increased till it was greater than the 2020 average, making 2020 only the "second hottest year on record". In this way, the two years, 2019 and 2020, were denied their proper status of "the hottest year on record." Such manipulations were made to hide the scale of the climate emergency that we face.

Because of the catastrophic consequences of not being informed about such important things, I suggest that those who hide such are severely punished.

In more detail one has:

In 2017 the real Global Average Surface Temperature was found to be 14.84 degrees centigrade. This made 2017 a "hottest year on record" event. Hence, the 2017 average global temperature was (fraudulently) reduced to 14.81 degrees and 2017 became only the "second hottest year on record". This deception bcame apparent in 2022 (possibly earlier) when the 2017 average suddenly increased to 14.84 and remained at this number in following years.

This was done to stop 2017 from being a hottest year on record.

--------------------------		 --------------------------
Hottest years list to 2017 FAKED hottest years list to 2017
-------------------------- --------------------------
1 2017 14.8400 <= add 2017 average 2 2016 14.8394
2 2016 14.8394 1 2017 14.8100 <= 2017 average decreased
3 2015 14.8014 3 2015 14.8014 to prevent 2017 being
4 2014 14.6413 4 2014 14.6413 a hottest year on record.
5 2010 14.6011 5 2010 14.6011
6 2013 14.5679 6 2013 14.5679
-------------------------- --------------------------

In 2019 the 2016 Global Average Temperature (Land + Ocean) was changed from 14.85 to 14.895

This was done to stop 2019 from being a hottest year on record.

--------------------------		 --------------------------
Hottest years list to 2019 FAKED hottest years list to 2019
-------------------------- -------------------------
1 2019 14.8500 <= add 2019 average 2 2016 14.8950 <= 2016 average increased
2 2016 14.8394 1 2019 14.8500 to prevent 2019 being
3 2017 14.8100 4 2015 14.8292 a hottest year on record.
4 2015 14.8014 3 2017 14.8100
5 2018 14.7292 5 2018 14.7292
6 2014 14.6413 6 2014 14.6413
------------------------- -------------------------

In 2020 the 2016 Global Average Temperature (Land + Ocean) was changed from 14.895 to 14.93.

This was done to stop 2020 from being a hottest year on record.

-------------------------                -------------------------
Hottest years list to 2020 FAKED hottest years list to 2020
-------------------------- -------------------------
1 2020 14.9100 <= add 2020 average 2 2016 14.9300 <= 2016 average increased
2 2016 14.8950 1 2020 14.9100 again to prevent 2020
3 2019 14.8500 3 2019 14.8500 being another hottest
4 2015 14.8292 4 2015 14.8292 year on record.
5 2017 14.8100 5 2017 14.8100
6 2018 14.7292 6 2018 14.7292
-------------------------- --------------------------

If these three manipulations of the data are removed, then one has:

In the last TEN years SIX have been hottest years on record.

Year, Temperature, Hottest-on-record?
2024 15.19 another hottest year on record (1850-2024)
2023 15.09 another hottest year on record (1850-2023)
2022 14.80
2021 14.77
2020 14.91 another hottest year on record (1850-2020)
2019 14.85 another hottest year on record (1850-2019)
2018 14.77
2017 14.84 another hottest year on record (1850-2017)
2016 14.84 another hottest year on record (1850-2016)
2015 14.81 another hottest year on record (1850-2015)

If the above does not worry you; it should.

Using the doctored-official data one had (until Jan. 2025):

Year, Temperature, Hottest-on-record?
2023 15.09 another hottest year on record (1850-2023)
2022 14.80
2021 14.77
2020 14.91
2019 14.85
2018 14.77
2017 14.84
2016 14.93 another hottest year on record (1850-2016)
2015 14.81 another hottest year on record (1850-2015)
2014 14.65 another hottest year on record (1850-2014)

Of course, the doctored-official data looks much less concerning.

The data I have used has been collected (over the years) from here, i.e., from

www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies/anomalies

The anomalies given measure the difference of a temperature from one of the 20th century averages (1901-2000) which are;

The 20th century average land-ocean surface temperature is 13.9 °C
The 20th century average land surface temperature is 8.5 °C
The 20th century average ocean surface temperature is 16.1 °C

If you wish to convert the anomalies to temperatures you only need add on one of the above numbers, i.e., one of 13.9, 8.5 or 16.1. These numbers are from here. See the row labeled Annual (at bottom).

One needs to say a few words about the global (land-ocean) averages.

Roughly, the land average is calculated by assigning a temperature to each square meter of the land and then calculating the average of all of these temperatures. The ocean average is calculated by assigning a temperature to each square meter of the ocean and then calculating the average of these temperatures.

You would think one would use exactly the same methodology to find the global (land-ocean) average, i.e., you would assign a temperature to each square meter of the globe and then calculate the average of these temperatures, but for some reason this is not done. For example, in 2024 the land average was 17.07 and the ocean average was 10.48. Using the method I just described the 2024 global average would be:

10.48 x 0.71 + 17.07 x 0.29 = 12.39 degrees,

where 0.71 is the proportion of ocean, and 0.29 is the proportion of land. However, NOAA states that the 2024 global average is 15.19 degrees. I could not find the formula NOAA uses in combining the land and ocean averages.

Some claim that combining the land and ocean averages in the manner I have described results in a statistic with no physical meaning, and that scaling factors should be used to provide a number that better reflects some physical quantity, which may be what NOAA has done. However, the combining of land and ocean averages in the manner described above does, in fact, reflect a perfectly reasonable physical quantity, and should, I guess, be the one used.

By hiding (or not making easily available) the formula NOAA uses, NOAA has created a black box where warming can be hidden. For example, the difference between the coldest and hottest record, according to NOAA, is 15.19-13.47=1.72 degrees, whereas according to the method described above it is 12.39-10.00=2.39, so we see that some 0.67 degrees of warming has been hidden.

The 9 hottest years on record are the last 9 years. (To be updated.)

The 9 hottest years since records began in 1850 till the present 2022 are the last 9 years,
i.e., the years 2014 to 2022 are the 9 hottest years on record.

.       Land & Ocean          Land               Ocean
Year Anomaly Year Anomaly Year Anomaly

1 2016 1.03 1 2020 1.64 1 2016 0.75
2 2020 1.01 2 2016 1.63 2 2019 0.74
3 2019 0.97 3 2017 1.50 3 2020 0.72
4 2017 0.94 4 2019 1.49 4 2015 0.72
5 2015 0.91 5 2022 1.42 5 2017 0.69
6 2022 0.90 6 2021 1.35 6 2022 0.67
7 2018 0.86 7 2015 1.34 7 2018 0.65
8 2021 0.85 8 2018 1.30 8 2021 0.63
9 2014 0.76 9 2007 1.21 9 2014 0.61

Land & Ocean Land Ocean
Year Temp. Year Temp. Year Temp.

1 2016 14.93 1 2020 10.14 1 2016 14.65
2 2020 14.91 2 2016 10.13 2 2019 14.64
3 2019 14.87 3 2017 10.00 3 2020 14.62
4 2017 14.84 4 2019 9.99 4 2015 14.62
5 2015 14.81 5 2022 9.92 5 2017 14.59
6 2022 14.80 6 2021 9.85 6 2022 14.57
7 2018 14.76 7 2015 9.84 7 2018 14.55
8 2021 14.75 8 2018 9.80 8 2021 14.53
9 2014 14.66 9 2007 9.71 9 2014 14.51

When the 2023 temperatures are finalised, it is already clear that the 10 hottest years (on record) will be the years 2014 to 2023. Whether 2023 becomes a "hottest year ever" event will depend on how hot the northern summer is, and on how willing those presenting the data are to fake the data. And, remember the 2016 numbers are suspect.

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Vostok
 

Re: The Vostok ice core records & global warming.

Postby preearth » Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:47 am

The Vostok ice core records & global warming.

The Vostok (Antarctica) ice core provides us with much information.

For example, here is the correlation between carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and temperature (at Vostok) over the last 420,000 years;

Image

Here we have two graphs, one plotting carbon dioxide concentration versus age, and the other plotting temperature versus age. The temperature is that measured at Vostok (in Antarctica) and is in degrees centigrade. The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is in parts per million (ppm). The temperature scale is actually measured relative to -56 degrees (-56 degrees being the average temperature at Vostok over the years 1961 to 1990). As has been pointed out to me, it would have been easier just to label the temperature scale -64 -62 -60 -58 -56 -54 -52.

The age of the ice is obtained by counting the annual layers of ice and when the layers are no longer clearly visible, the age is obtained by modeling the flow of the merged ice layers.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is measured directly from bubbles of air trapped in the layers of snow.

The temperature can be obtained by using hydrogen isotopes as a proxy. Hydrogen comes in two isotopes 1H and 2H. We will denote the usual hydrogen, 1H, simply by H. Its nucleus consists of one proton. Heavy hydrogen, 2H, will be called Deuterium and denoted D. Its nucleus consists of one proton and one neutron. When ocean water evaporates, heavy water (which is mostly HDO with a very small amount of D2O) evaporates less readily (than normal water H2O) because it is heavier. Therefore, the water vapor in the atmosphere ends up with a smaller percentage of heavy water in it than ocean water. When this water vapor in the atmosphere precipitates as rain and snow, the heavy water in it precipitates out preferentially, but the rain or snow still has measurably less heavy water than ocean water. This difference can be used to estimate the temperature around the time the evaporation/precipitation occurred. [A similar statement can be made concerning the oxygen isotopes, 16O and 18O.]

To emphasize the incredible correlation between the temperature and carbon dioxide concentration, it has been suggested that the two graphs of the image should be over-lapped as follows:

Image

Notice the huge "hockey stick" rise at year 0 (i.e., the present time) on the right of the graphs. Some folk have complained that the "hockey stick" part of the image is hidden. Changing the page's width (make it wider) should fix this. If not, you can right click on the image, choose "view image" from the menu and the image will appear separately from the page.

These graphs show that if the 420,000 year trend continues, we are in for a massive temperature rise.

Indeed, this rise in temperature is already under way, as is verified by the following data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Image

The NOAA data tells us, for example, that:

2016 is the hottest year on record for global temperatures.

This is 0.0380 degrees centigrade hotter than the previous record year which was 2015.

0.0380 is a large increase in just one year.

2015 was the hottest year (at that time) for global temperatures.

This was 0.1601 degrees hotter than the previous record year which was 2014.

0.1601 is an absolutely huge increase in just one year.

At this rate, temperatures would increase by 16 degrees in a century.

2014 was the hottest year (at that time) for global temperatures.

This was 0.0402 degrees hotter than the previous record year which was 2010....

The anomalies measure the difference from the 20th century average (1901-2000).

The 20th century average land+ocean surface temperature is 13.9 °C.
The 20th century average land surface temperature is 8.5 °C.
The 20th century average ocean surface temperature is 16.1 °C.

The data is from: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-re ... malies.php [ ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php ]

For a full listing of the 137 years of temperature data, see:

http://www.preearth.net/images/temp-ano ... 0-2017.txt

The rise in average yearly land temperatures is particularly worrying (from 7.8725 °C in 1884, to 9.9357 °C in 2017).

So, why is the rise in temperatures so worrisome?

For one thing, as temperatures rise good farmland will become desert (e.g., dust-bowl conditions will probably return to the American Midwest).

Another major problem is sea-level rise.

Have a look at http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/ or http://www.preearth.net/pdfs/USGS-sea-l ... limate.pdf

The U.S. Geological Survey people claim that;

The Greenland ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 6.55 meters (21.5 feet),
the West Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 8.06 meters (26.4 feet),
the East Antarctica ice sheet melting will raise sea-level 64.8 meters (212.6 feet),
and all other ice melting will raise sea-level 0.91 meters (3 feet).

For a grand total of about 80 meters (263 feet).

So, what does an 80 meter (263 feet) rise in sea-level mean?

Have a look at the following map of the world after an 80 meter rise.

Image

For a larger map see: http://www.preearth.net/images/after-melt-world.png

And for a really huge map see: http://www.preearth.net/images/after-me ... x10800.png

This map is 21,600 x 10,800 pixels (17MB) and some older browsers may have trouble displaying it.

So, what does an 80 meter (263 feet) rise in sea-level mean?

It means that over one billion people will have to be resettled to higher ground and that much of the most productive agricultural land will be under water. Fortunately, at current rates the Greenland ice sheet will take over a thousand years to melt and the Antarctica ice sheet, much longer. However, the greater the temperature rise the faster the ice sheets will melt, bringing the problem much closer. Remember, the huge ice sheet that recently covered much of North America, almost completely melted in only 15,000 years (today, only the Greenland ice sheet and some other small patches of it, remain). Since then (15,000 years ago), sea-levels have risen about 125 meters (410 feet), only 80 meters to go.

The ice sheets have been continuously melting for thousands of years. What is left of them today, is still melting, and will continue to melt. Human caused global warning will cause this remnant to melt significantly faster. This is a big, big, problem.

This is what Britain and Ireland will look like:

Image
preearth
 
Posts: 51
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2010 5:52 am

Re: Global Warming, sea-level rise & the Vostok ice core rec

Postby preearth » Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:27 am

Huge detailed maps of the "World after the Melt".

The following links point to detailed images (6886 x 6886 pixels) of the world after the ice-caps have melted.

After the melt. 500m contours. China.
After the melt. 500m contours. Europe.
After the melt. 500m contours. North America.
After the melt. 500m contours. South America.
After the melt. 500m contours. Australia and New Zealand.
After the melt. 500m contours. Africa.
After the melt. 500m contours. North Pole.
After the melt. 500m contours. South Pole.

Here is one of them (100 times smaller):

Image

Here are some after-melt images which compare the new sea-shore to the old:

Image
Image

They are from newpapyrusmagazine.blogspot.com/2008/03/worse-case-scenario.html

If you happen to be from New Zealand then visit: http://www.musther.net/nzslr/

For a really huge map which shows the areas that will eventually be flooded in red, see:

http://www.preearth.net/images/flooded- ... x10800.png

Again, this map is 21,600 x 10,800 pixels (17MB) and some older browsers may have trouble displaying it.

Here is a small version of it;

Image

The conspiracy to hide global warming data.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is given tax money to make global temperature data available to the public. However, certain people at NOAA continually sabotage this aspect of NOAA's mandate.

For example, these people have (deliberately) sabotaged the web-page that delivers the temperature data.

The page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-re ... malies.php

is still there, but the Global Anomalies and Index Data section (where you were once able to download the temperature data) has been moved from the very top of the page, to the bottom, so that fewer people will find it. Then (probably when they discovered that too many people were still finding the information) they just removed the page that the Global Anomalies and Index Data section links to, making the temperature data unavailable.

Look for yourself:

Click on the above link; scroll down to the The Global Anomalies and Index Data section and click the download button and see what happens. Well, you get the message:

"Not Found. The requested URL /monitoring-references/faq/anomalies-download was not found on this server."

I guess that the 2017 data must be truly horrible if they have to hide it away.

You may think this is some accident but it isn't.

Previous to the current web-page NOAA had another web-page (and an ftp site) that allowed for the downloading of the temperature files (data). However, at some point, the relevant files had the latest data removed from them (by removing the last few lines of each file) and then the files were no longer updated. After a number of years, someone who cared, noticed, and told the saboteurs at NOAA that they had to make the files (data) available again, and they did (for a while).

This sort of sabotage is not at all unusual for sites that are meant to distribute information concerning global warming.

Another example of sabotage:

To obtain data, for example, on the loss of ice from the Greenland ice sheet, you are required to provide certain information (name, address, affiliation, e-mail address, etc) before you can access the data. Then, of course, they don't allow you to access the data anyway. A particular example of this scam is:

http://nsidc.org/data/IRACC1B/versions/2

Click on the link. You will see that they state that "FTP Data Distribution is no longer available for this data set. The NASA, NSIDC, DAAC, now distributes data through HTTPS, which requires users to log in with an Earthdata Login username and password. Data will continue to be available free of charge."

Of course, to distribute data through HTTPS, does not, in itself, require a Login, and never has.

Its just another way to prevent access to the data.

July 2017 had the hottest average land temperatures on record.

The new July 2017 record was +1.20 degrees centigrade above the 20th century average (of the July data). The previous record average land temperature for July was just last year. It was +1.10 degrees above the 20th century average.

Did the press bother to tell you about this? No!

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preearth
 
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Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2010 5:52 am


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